Ukraine’s Official Population Estimate Has Been Frozen at January 1, 2022
The State Statistics Service of Ukraine's population estimate remains, at its most recent, the 41.17 million figure for January 1, 2022, before the full-scale invasion. Population figures since then come from sources with different scopes and different ways of counting — UN estimates and projections, and institute estimates cited in government strategy documents. A July 2024 estimate cited in a government document gives 31.1 million; a UN projection gives 39.68 million. This article explains why the figures differ so much, starting from their definitions.
The most recent population estimate the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has published is as of January 1, 2022 — 54 days before the full-scale invasion began. As of September 2026, the estimate up to this January 1, 2022 date was the latest one listed in the agency’s data collection, “Population Size and Structure.”
In the four and a half years since, figures for Ukraine’s population have come from sources other than the State Statistics Service: the UN, Ukrainian government strategy documents, and research institutes. Because each counts a different scope at a different point in time, even figures for the same word “population” diverge widely.
Four Figures for the Same Date, January 1, 2022
First, here are the figures from three sources for the same date, immediately before the full-scale invasion.
| Figure | Source | What is counted |
|---|---|---|
| 41,167,335 | State Statistics Service of Ukraine | Estimate of the “present population” (наявне населення). Excludes the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol |
| 40,997,698 | State Statistics Service of Ukraine | Estimate of the “permanent population” (постійне населення). Also excludes Crimea and Sevastopol |
| 42 million | Estimate of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine), cited in a government strategy document | No explanation of scope is given in the citation |
| 44.073 million | UN “World Population Prospects 2024” | People physically present in the country at that time (de facto). Includes Crimea |
The State Statistics Service’s two figures arise from a difference in definition. Per the agency’s explanation, the “present population” is the people in a given area at that time, including those staying temporarily (people away from their usual residence for up to 12 months). The “permanent population” is the people permanently residing in the area, including those temporarily absent for up to 12 months. Both are estimates calculated from the results of the last census, adjusted using registrations of births and deaths and changes in address registration. According to materials the State Statistics Service submitted to the UN, the last census was on December 5, 2001, and populations from 2003 onward are treated as “provisional values” (see also What Kind of Country Is Ukraine? — Area, Population, Language, and Daily Life).
In its permanent-population publication, the State Statistics Service does not list city-by-city figures for Donetsk and Luhansk regions, stating that the calculation (estimate) is not accurate.
The UN figure includes Crimea and is a value the UN Population Division estimates independently, using each country’s census, registrations of births and deaths, and sample surveys. How much of the roughly 3 million difference from the State Statistics Service figure is attributable to Crimea cannot be determined from published materials.
The UN’s Figures: “Estimates” Through 2023, “Projections” From 2024
As of September 2026, the latest edition of the UN Population Division’s “World Population Prospects” is the 2024 revision, published in July 2024. This edition divides 1950 through 2023 into “estimates” and 2024 onward into “projections.”
| Date | Population | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| January 1, 2022 | 44.07 million | Estimate |
| July 1, 2022 | 41.05 million | Estimate |
| January 1, 2023 | 38.02 million | Estimate |
| January 1, 2024 | 37.44 million | Projection (medium variant) |
| January 1, 2026 | 39.68 million | Projection (medium variant) |
Net migration (the number who left subtracted from the number who entered) for the single year 2022 is estimated at minus 5.7 million. For 2024, meanwhile, it is plus 1.15 million, and for 2025, plus 1.70 million. These figures for the latter two years are the net migration assumed as a premise for the projection, not a count of people who actually entered or left. The 39.68 million for January 1, 2026, is likewise a figure built on this premise. This article has not confirmed the reasoning behind this premise.
The “31.1 Million” in a Government Strategy Document
On September 30, 2024, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approved the “Strategy for Demographic Development of Ukraine to 2040” by Order No. 922-r. Its text gives, as estimates from the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, a population of 42 million as of January 1, 2022, and 35.8 million as of July 2024, and states that, of that, the population in “territory where state authorities exercise full authority” was 31.1 million.
The same document also independently estimates the number of people abroad. Using data from the UN (for 2022) and the State Border Guard Service (for 2023–2024), it states that, from the full-scale invasion through May 31, 2024, 34.39 million people left the country and 30.91 million entered, leaving 3.48 million who left and had not returned. Adding to this people transferred to or who moved to Russia and Belarus (1.2 million per a report of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR) and others, it puts the number of people abroad at about 5 million.
For the future, it lists the institute’s outlook of 28.9 million by January 1, 2041 (within the 1991 borders) under an “inertia scenario” in which no new measures are taken, versus 33.9 million under a “change scenario” in which the strategy is carried out. The same document also states that population projection is difficult, because population movements in occupied territory cannot be tracked and because there are multiple possible courses for the war.
The Number of People Abroad Also Shifts With How It Is Counted
UNHCR statistics are commonly used as the figure for the number of people who fled abroad. In UNHCR’s statistical database, the number of refugees whose country of origin is Ukraine (at each year-end) is as follows.
| Year-end | Refugees | Of which Germany | Of which Poland | Of which Russia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5,684,177 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 5,960,362 | — | — | 1,227,554 |
| 2024 | 5,120,036 | — | — | 6,894 |
| 2025 | 5,224,131 | 1,173,192 | 972,287 | 5,488 |
Most of the decrease from year-end 2023 to year-end 2024 is due to the number of people said to be in Russia falling from just over 1.22 million to just under 7,000. No reason for this change is noted alongside the database figures. Comparing year-to-year totals without looking at the country-by-country breakdown can lead to a misreading.
The same is true within the country. In UNHCR’s database, internally displaced persons at year-end 2025 number 3.712 million. The Cabinet’s strategy document gives 4.7 million as the number of internally displaced persons registered with the state as of July 2024. The former is a figure from an international organization’s database; the latter is a state registration count — they differ both in date and in how they count. The distinction between “refugee,” “internally displaced person,” and “evacuee” is covered in Refugee, IDP, Evacuee — Why Not to Use Them Interchangeably.
For people in Japan, UNHCR’s database gives 2,346 refugees as of year-end 2025. The Japanese government’s own figures and definitions are covered in 2,902 Ukrainians Have Evacuated to Japan; 1,931 Are Living There Now.
What to Attach When Citing These Figures
There is no single answer to the question “What is Ukraine’s population?” When citing a figure, at least the following four things need to be attached.
- Date: Is it the estimate for January 1, 2022, the estimate for July 2024, or a projection?
- Scope: Does it include Crimea? Does it include territory occupied since 2022? Is it only territory under government control?
- Method of counting: Is it people physically in the country at that time, or people who usually live there? Which category do people abroad fall into?
- Source: Is it the State Statistics Service’s official estimate, a research institute’s estimate, or an international organization’s estimate or projection?
That the State Statistics Service’s official estimate has stayed frozen is itself a sign of how difficult it is to count a population under war. There is a gap of about 8.6 million between the “31.1 million” shown in the Ukrainian government’s document and the UN’s projection of “39.68 million,” but the two differ in scope, in date, and in nature — neither one is simply wrong.
Sources and article record
Sources and references
- Population size and structureデータ集。刊行物は2022年1月1日時点までを掲載. Data collection; publications list only through January 1, 2022
Published by ウクライナ国家統計局 · Checked: 2026-09-24 - Number of Present Population of Ukraine刊行物一覧。2020〜2022年1月1日時点の3冊. List of publications; three volumes for January 1, 2020 through January 1, 2022
Published by ウクライナ国家統計局 · Checked: 2026-09-24 - Чисельність наявного населення України на 1 січня 2022 року現在人口41,167,335人、クリミアとセヴァストポリを除く、推計の方法、定義. Present population 41,167,335; excludes Crimea and Sevastopol; the estimation method; the definition
Published by ウクライナ国家統計局 · Checked: 2026-09-24 - Розподіл постійного населення України за статтю та віком на 1 січня 2022 року常住人口40,997,698人、ドネツィク州・ルハンシク州の都市別を掲載しない理由、常住人口の定義. Permanent population 40,997,698; the reason city-level figures for Donetsk and Luhansk regions are not listed; the definition of permanent population
Published by ウクライナ国家統計局 · Checked: 2026-09-24 - Demographic Yearbook: Questionnaire on Population Estimates, Part 2: Metadata — Ukraine, reporting year 2022最後の国勢調査2001年12月5日、2003年以降は暫定値. The last census, December 5, 2001; populations from 2003 onward treated as provisional
Published by 国連統計部（記入者はウクライナ国家統計局） · Checked: 2026-09-24 - Про схвалення Стратегії демографічного розвитку України на період до 2040 року内閣令第922-р号、2024年9月30日。研究所の推計42百万・35.8百万・31.1百万、出入国34.39百万・30.91百万・3.48百万、約5百万、登録国内避難民4.7百万、2041年の28.9百万・33.9百万. Cabinet Order No. 922-r, September 30, 2024; the institute's estimates of 42 million, 35.8 million, and 31.1 million; entries and exits of 34.39 million, 30.91 million, and 3.48 million; about 5 million abroad; 4.7 million registered internally displaced persons; the 2041 figures of 28.9 million and 33.9 million
Published by ウクライナ内閣（最高会議の法令データベース） · Checked: 2026-09-24 - World Population Prospects 2024: Demographic IndicatorsGEN/01/REV1、Estimates 1950-2023・Medium variant。ウクライナの年初人口・年央人口・純移動、注記15「クリミアを含む」. GEN/01/REV1, Estimates 1950-2023, Medium variant; Ukraine's beginning-of-year and mid-year population and net migration; footnote 15, "includes Crimea"
Published by 国連経済社会局人口部 · Checked: 2026-09-24 - World Population Prospects 2024トップページ。2024年版が第28版、国勢調査・登録・標本調査による推計. Top page; the 2024 revision is the 28th edition; estimates based on censuses, registrations, and sample surveys
Published by 国連経済社会局人口部 · Checked: 2026-09-24 - Glossary of Demographic TermsPopulation＝de facto population. "Population" defined as de facto population
Published by 国連経済社会局人口部 · Checked: 2026-09-24 - Refugee Data Finder API出身国＝ウクライナ。2022〜2025年末の難民数、国内避難民、2025年末の受入国別〈ドイツ・ポーランド・ロシア・日本〉、2023・2024年末のロシア. Country of origin = Ukraine; refugee numbers for year-ends 2022–2025; internally displaced persons; the year-end 2025 breakdown by host country [Germany, Poland, Russia, Japan]; Russia at year-ends 2023 and 2024
Published by 国連難民高等弁務官事務所（UNHCR） · Checked: 2026-09-24
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